According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has risen to 43% following President Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs. This increased risk of economic slowdown is expected to heighten volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies, as traders may seek safe-haven alternatives or adjust positions in response to macroeconomic uncertainty (Source: The Kobeissi Letter via Twitter, Kalshi). Crypto traders should monitor cross-asset flows and US economic data closely for potential price swings.